The report, by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in tandem with UK’s Met Office, says global temperatures are likely to keep rising over the next five years – increasing risks for people, economies and ecosystems.
It follows a separate WMO report released in March, which found that 2024 was likely the first calendar year where the global temperature was more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
“We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,” WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett said.
Breach likely
There is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be hotter than 2024 – the warmest year ever recorded.
There is also an 86 percent chance that one of those years will go above 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Across the full five-year period, there is a 70 percent chance that the average warming will exceed 1.5C. That’s up from 47 percent in last year’s forecast.
The 1.5C target in the Paris Agreement refers to a 20-year global average, so it has not yet officially been passed. But the WMO’s earlier report said 2024 saw an annual temperature of 1.55C above the pre-industrial baseline, based on observational records.
For the first time, there is now a one percent chance that a single year before 2029 could exceed 2C of warming. That risk is still low, but scientists say it is growing.
“It is shocking,” UK Met Office climate scientist Adam Scaife said. “That probability is going to rise.”
Arctic warming surges
The Arctic is heating much faster than the rest of the world. The report says winter temperatures in the region will rise by about 2.4C compared to the 1991-2020 average – more than three and a half times the global rate.
This is likely to drive further sea ice loss in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk seas, which could affect weather patterns around the world.
From May to September over the next five years, wetter than average conditions are likely in the African Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia. The Amazon could face more drought.
South Asia is also expected to stay wetter than normal, though not in every season.
Key thresholds
The WMO says the 20-year average warming from 2015 to 2034 is likely to be about 1.44C above pre-industrial levels.
The forecasts are based on more than 200 computer simulations from 15 scientific centres and were compiled by the UK’s Met Office.
Every fraction of a degree makes extreme weather more likely – including heatwaves, floods, droughts and rising seas.
The findings come ahead of this year’s COP30 climate summit, where countries are expected to present new action plans to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
